The big ol' 2024 NFL preview: Breaking down all 32 teams with MVPs, underrated players and more (2024)

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – AUGUST 10: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals prepares for a preseason game against the New Orleans Saints at State Farm Stadium on August 10, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 776171308 ORIG FILE ID: 2166244588

Most important non-quarterback: Marvin Harrison Jr. Finally, the WR1 for which Kyler Murray has waited his entire career has arrived.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB Max Melton

Postseason odds: +300

From: The Cardinals, and Kyler Murray, will be better than you think in 2024

Things changed over the final three weeks of the season. The schedule got easier, for one, but Murray still had to face a Chicago Bears defense that was playing like a top three unit to finish the year, a talented-but-spiraling Philadelphia Eagles and a Seattle Seahawks team still in the playoff hunt.

Murray threw six touchdowns against a single interception in that span. His passer rating rose from 78.4to 108.3. His deep game was still a mess — he completed only three of 12 passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield — but he found a way to maximize a roster with a few nice young prospects and a whole bunch of replacement level players.

Here’s where he ranked among starting quarterbacks over those final three weeks of 2023.

Aug 6, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) signals during a joint practice with the Miami Dolphins at Baptist Health Training Complex. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Matt Judon. No addition aside from Kirk Cousins illustrates the Falcons’ win-now mentality like their preseason trade for the veteran pass rusher.

Under the radar key to 2024: LB Troy Andersen

Postseason odds: -215

From: The Falcons can make it back to the playoffs if Kirk Cousins is the key to an offensive revival

The Falcons’ offense can be looked at with one of two filters. On one end, you can see a potential juggernaut just waiting for the right quarterback. You see first-round picks like Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts being unleashed as a lethal triple threat on the league with [Kirk] Cousins and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson calling the shots, with valuable supporting players like running back Tyler Allgeier, wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Charlie Woerner all playing key roles, too.

On the other end, you could see a lot of chips being pushed in on an aging Cousins coming off an Achilles injury and an unproven play caller in Robinson, combined with an assumption that Pitts just isn’t living up to the hype and Robinson and London are just too unproven to depend on, either.

The truth will likely skew a bit more positive than you might think, considering the poor returns on that side of the ball in Atlanta in recent years. Cousins was playing some of the best football of his career before he got hurt last fall, but even a Cousins at 75-percent of his best self is a massive improvement over the last couple of years for the Falcons.

Sep 19, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) flips into the end zone for a fourth quarter touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Kyle Hamilton. In the midst of defensive depth chart turnover, Baltimore needs a backline big-play eraser more than ever.

Under the radar key to 2024: EDGE Odafe Oweh

Postseason odds: -260

From: The Ravens have several starters to replace and no one is worried because (gestures broadly)

Losing [linebacker Patrick] Queen isn’t ideal, but Roquan Smith remains in the middle of the field to make life easier for Trenton Simpson, who has the athleticism and recognition to thrive as an off-ball linebacker in his second year. [Safety Geno] Stone was a Ravens’ developmental success story after working his way from seventh-round pick to starter. He’ll cede his spot to deposed New Orleans Saints safety Marcus Williams, who gets to lean on All-Pro Kyle Hamilton at corner. First round pick Nate Wiggins’ lean frame could create a steep learning curve for 2024, but Marlon Humphrey’s versatility means new defensive coordinator Zach Orr won’t solely have to rely on a 170-pound rookie when it comes to stopping opponents’ top targets.

Baltimore, at its best, is a support network. A brain of neural pathways where the quickest-firing lobes help lift developing connections and find ways to see the field in new and innovative ways. It’s why this team has ranked in the top three when it comes to points allowed five of the last six years and why only an injury to Jackson could break a streak of winning campaigns.

The problem is, that success runs thin once January arrives.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts to his second touchdown to regain the lead against the Chiefs.

Most important non-quarterback: Matt Milano. The heart and soul of this defense will miss a good chunk of 2024 nursing a torn bicep, but he’s on the “designated to return” list and could be a boon when it’s time for a playoff push.

Under the radar key to 2024: WR Khalil Shakir

Postseason odds: -175

From: Josh Allen is the only thing that can keep a new-look Bills team from falling off

Make no mistake, this year’s Buffalo team won’t look too much like the one that rallied to lock down the division after toiling in post-Jim Kelly muck for more than two decades. Stefon Diggs, the wide receiver who helped turn Allen from a big-armed lottery ticket of a quarterback into a force of nature, is now a Houston Texan. Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White, the trio who bolstered a top five scoring defense four of the last five seasons, have been scattered to the wind. Low-key contributors who came through in big moments like Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse and Leonard Floyd are gone as well.

That’s the result of a mini-rebuild aimed at replacing veterans aging out of their most productive era and cutting costs. It hasn’t been cheap, either from a talent standpoint or a salary cap one. The Bills have $61.2 million of their salary sheet committed to players who are no longer on the roster, leaving nearly 24 percent of their spending on dead cap. Despite this, things aren’t especially rosy for 2025; the team’s current commitments place it an estimated $3.7 million over next year’s spending limit — eighth worst in the NFL,per Over the Cap.

This is at least fairly grim. And while it may damper Buffalo’s preseason hype, it may not matter because the man behind center plays football like an inebriated witch got a moose and a Ford F-150 to mate and then made its child a quarterback.

Aug 25, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) throws a touchdown pass to wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) (not pictured) as Detroit Lions defensive end Romeo Okwara (95) pressures in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Austin Corbett/Robert Hunt. Carolina’s blocking last season was a grim spectacle. That’s why the Panthers spent big this offseason to revamp the interior of their offensive line.

Under the radar key to 2024: OT Ikem Ekwonu

Postseason odds: +550

From: The Panthers will be better in 2024 because, well…

In the middle of all this, team owner David Tepper presided over a low-rent Game of Thrones between hiscoaching staff and executive team. He wingeda drink at fansafter a road loss. He proved every stereotype about the social skills of Carnegie Mellon graduates right with a weird, hello-fellow-humaninteraction with a restaurant workerwhose sign had the nerve to playfully criticize Tepper’s decision making.

Despite sinking to the bottom of the standings and rising to the top of the NFL’s clown shoe rankings, there wasn’t even a high value first round pick on which to fall back. The Chicago Bears, still profiting from the deal that put Young in Carolina blue, used the first overall pick to draft Caleb Williams, the best-received quarterback prospect since Trevor Lawrence.

This is all a tremendous amount of haze that makes it difficult to see a silver lining. It’s there, I promise.

It all begins with Young, whose fortunes behind center will dictate whether we see the Panthers back in the postseason for the first time since 2017 or if the team is sunk in another arduous rebuild. Admittedly, there wasn’t much to like about his 2023.

Questions about his size manifested in throws downfield and over the middle. His 11 completed deep balls (out of 46!) tied for 25th-most in the NFL. That wouldn’t seem so bad until you realize the guys tied with him include Kirk Cousins (eight starts in 2023) and Tyrod Taylor (five). That’s one fewer deep ball than Zach Wilson who is, crucially,Zach Wilson.

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 10: Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears rolls out against the Buffalo Bills during the first half of a preseason game at Highmark Stadium on August 10, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images)

Most important non-quarterback: DJ Moore. Moore helped maximize Justin Fields’ passing offense in 2023; now he (and Keenan Allen. And Rome Odunze) gets to do the same for Caleb Williams.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB Tyrique Stevenson

Postseason odds: -110

From: Caleb Williams may be the quarterback the Bears cannot break

Most first overall picks go to borderline hopeless situations in year one. Not Williams. He gets to throw to what may be the league’s best wideout trio in Moore, Allen and top 10 draft pick Rome Odunze — a man who made 50-50 deep throws a 75-25 proposition at Washington. His tight end is Cole Kmet, whose 1.63 yards per route run (YPRR) was a top eight mark. Poles even splurged to bring D’Andre Swift to the backfield despite already having a solid young RB1 in Khalil Herbert and a viable prospect behind him in Roschon Johnson.

This has all come together to build a tremendous launch pad for Williams, who also inherits a head coach that failed to make the most of Fields and now gets to prove he knows what *not* to do. Matt Eberflus tried to minimize Fields’ running tendencies in 2023, instead leaving him in the pocket while absorbing some truly horrendous sacks (135 in 40 games as a Bear).

But Eberflus recognized the flaws there, giving his young quarterback more freedom as his rushes per game rose from 7.8 to start the season to 11 over the final seven games — a 4-3 stretch that likely saved the coach’s job. In that stretch, Fields was less efficient as a passer (his rating dropped from 95.4 pre-midseason injury to 82.2) but had a bigger positive impact on the game (his expected points added rose from -0.054 to -0.009… not great, but still better!).

Most important non-quarterback: Ja’Marr Chase. A contract year (for both Chase and the franchise-tagged Tee Higgins) could lead to an explosion from an already volatile passing offense.

Under the radar key to 2024: RB Zack Moss

Postseason odds: -260

From: The Bengals are hoping the center will hold, at least for one more Super Bowl run

[Former offensive coordinator Brian] Callahan will coach the Tennessee Titans this fall, hoping to bring his Fix-It Felix skills to Will Levis’ blown-out skyscraper. Promoted to fill his place is quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher, who began his Bengals career back when Marvin Lewis was head coach and has been the guy taking care of Joe Burrow since he was drafted in 2020.

That fits with the team’s “once we’re healthy, we’re fine” mentality. Cincy was in the midst of a 4-1 stretch with wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills before Burrow’s [season-ending] injury. The offense scored at least 24 points in four of those five games. This looked like the team that made it to Super Bowl 56 once again.

We know Pitcher’s job won’t be under scrutiny if the season begins slowly, because that’s sorta Cincinnati’s thing. The Bengals are 6-6 in the first four weeks of the season the last three years and 25-13 afterward. We also know a healthy Burrow will significantly lessen the challenge on his plate. Over the last three seasons, he’s been at least a top five quarterback with an argument to be made about top three status:

Jan 8, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) is pressured by Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers T.J. Watt (90) and Alex Highsmith (56) during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Myles Garrett. Let’s be honest; he’s the Browns’ most important player, period.

Under the radar key to 2024: QB Jameis Winston

Postseason odds: +145

From: A good Deshaun Watson can lead the Browns to glory. History isn’t on his side.

There have been 41 quarterbacks to field at least 450 snaps since 2022 — Watson clocks in with 452 as a Brown. Here’s where he lands in the composite rankings.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

Goooooooo! Watson has been the league’s 34th most efficient quarterback in a league where there are 32 starters. He’d been less essential than passers like Taylor Heinicke, Kenny Pickett and Gardner Minshew. Those three guys, combined, made roughly $14 million last fall — or roughly 22 percent of Watson’s $63.7 million cap hit in 2024.

There have been good moments cutting through that fog to help provide a glimmer of hope for the Browns. Watson was genuinely great against the Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals last fall, throwing four touchdown passes without an interception in a pair of games Cleveland won by a total of 54 to three.

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) and quarterback Dak Prescott (4) talk during the game against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: CeeDee Lamb. Dallas’ once-flush cache of game-breaking skill players is dwindling, but the Cowboys’ $136 million man should still thrive despite an impending crush of double-teams.

Under the radar key to 2024: C Cooper Beebe

Postseason odds: -210

From: The Cowboys can still win the NFC East even if their offseason stunk

The Cowboys lost four different players who took at least 50 percent of the team’s offensive snaps last season; left tackle Tyron Smith, center Tyler Biadasz, wideout Michael Gallup and running back Tony Pollard. That means two new starters on the offensive line — a pair of blue chip rookies inTyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe— and a cadre of skill players that will rely heavily on relative NFL geriatrics in Brandin Cooks and Ezekiel Elliott.

This may not matter, because Prescott has CeeDee Lamb.

Prescott made Lamb his ultra huckleberry last year and turned that into the first All-Pro honor of his career and a second place finish in MVP voting. Lamb was a monster; 135 catches, 1,749 receiving yards and 2.68 yards per route run (YPRR), fifth-best in the NFL. He stands to somehow improve on those numbers in an offense light on playmakers and after securing a four year, $136 million extension that will keep him in Texas through his prime years.

Aug 11, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) points during the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Courtland Sutton. The run game is iffy and there’s little proven talent in the receiving corps, but Sutton’s ability to haul in tough catches is a panacea for any shaky quarterback.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB Riley Moss

Postseason odds: +600

From: If Sean Payton can guide this Broncos team to a winning record, he’s a wizard

Nix’s college resume is undeniably impressive. His transfer from Auburn to Oregon pushed him from good to great. He threw 45 touchdown passes in 14 2023 games against just three interceptions en route to a third place finish in Heisman Trophy voting.

However, that says more about the Oregon offense than Nix’s capabilities as a game-changer. The Ducks were closer in spirit to the San Francisco 49ers than the Kansas City Chiefs in terms of their passing game. The Pac-12 runners-up leaned heavily on the yards-after-catch machines in their lineup. Nix may have averaged a superb 9.6 yards per attempt — fifth best in the FBS — but his average pass traveled just 6.9 yards downfield, sixth-lowest in the FBS. 67 percent of his throws came nine yards beyond the line of scrimmage or fewer.

This didn’t mean he couldn’t make those big throws. He had a 26:2 touchdown:interception ratio on the33 percent of his tosses that went 10 yards or further. But what the Washington Huskies did to Nix in the Pac-12 title game is what opposing defenses will do throughout his rookie campaign.

The Huskies, healthier in the secondary than they were in October when Nix burned them for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns (in a loss), flooded the short range and trusted their deep safeties to erase Oregon’s big throws. It worked; Nix threw three touchdown passes but his 239 yards and 61.9 percent completion rate were both season lows. Washington won the game and went on to the College Football Playoff.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff high-fives teammates during warmups before the game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023. Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK

Most important non-quarterback: Terrion Arnold. The rookie cornerback will be counted on to address the fatal flaw that kept Detroit out of Super Bowl 58; a thin, leaky secondary.

Under the radar key to 2024: LB Jack Campbell

Postseason odds: -245

From: 67 years of Detroit Lions futility have been building to 2024’s actual, incredible hype

For the second straight season, Detroit has taken steps to fix this [secondary]. The team’s 2024 solution seems a bit more airtight than then one that failed last fall.

Cornerback Carlton Davis arrived via trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Davis has never been a Pro Bowler in his six years in the league or even played more than 14 games in a season, but he’s a steady corner who can hold his own in coverage and be trusted to understand his assignment. Amik Robertson, who improved across each of his four seasons as a Oakland/Las Vegas Raider, signed with the team on the first day of free agency. Emmanuel Moseley, the oft-injured corner who is solid when available but whose 2023 in Detroit lasted two snaps, re-signed on an inexpensive deal as well.

Those are all useful pieces, but the headliner arrived in April’s draft. The Lions sent the Dallas Cowboys the 29th pick as well as a third rounder in order to select Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold 24th overall. Arnold was neck and neck with Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell to be the first defensive back selected. Now he pairs with Brian Branch, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph and Aidan Hutchinson as the young, rising core of this defense.

And brother (or sister), that core. Hutchinson’s 62 pressures last seasonwere 12 more than anyone else in the NFL. Branch showed up as a dynamic nickel back who can erase slot threats and knocked down or intercepted 16 passes in 15 games (and he’s eying a move back to safety, at least in stretches, in 2024). Campbell’s rookie campaign was more of a mixed bag, but he proved a versatile off-ball linebacker whose coverage will improve with experience. Joseph allowed just a 70.5 passer rating when targeted last fall.

Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones (95) pressures Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) as Love passes the ball on Sunday, December 3, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 27-19.
Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

Most important non-quarterback: Rashan Gary. A new defensive coordinator aims to make Green Bay more than the sum of its parts. Gary may be the biggest integer on that unit.

Under the radar key to 2024: S Javon Bullard

Postseason odds: -155

From: How excited should the Packers be about the Jordan Love era?

The one concern is that Love’s passes tend to float, making him a glorious “no, no, no, YES” follow on game day. While he has the arm strength to sling the ball into tight windows, some of his finest plays are gently lofted balls that fall into a bucket.

This is terrifying, but endemic to the Love experience. He will make throws that look wildly interceptable as cameras pan downfield. Then they will land where he intended, moving the chains in a big way.

This doesn’t mean he’s infallible. He’s still filtering out the gunslinging instincts. Here’s a play, in the biggest game of his career, that had almost zero chance of succeeding and wound up sealing the Packers’ 2023 campaign:

Concerning, maybe, but this was a young quarterback in his second playoff start fighting with his back to the wall. For now, it can be treated as a lapse rather than a trend — even if it did look at least a little similar to Brett Favreruining the Minnesota Vikings’ playoff runin 2010.

Dec 10, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Derek Stingley Jr. Houston’s secondary could be breaking in multiple rookie starters. Being able to count on a lockdown corner would go a long way in making their transition to the pros easier.

Under the radar key to 2024: C Juice Scruggs

Postseason odds: -190

From: The Texans rapid evolution to Super Bowl contender now hinges on their splurging era

Let’s assume CJ Stroud and Will Anderson will both be top 10 players at their positions in 2024 (Stroud may already be there. Anderson needs to continue the linear growth he showcased at the end of 2023). They’ll count a combined $16.2 million against the team’s salary cap while providing the kind of performance you’d have to pay two veterans of equal carriage $75 million in average annual salary ($48.8 million for a top 10 quarterback, $26.2 million for a top 10 edge rusher).

That’s $59 million that can be spent elsewhere — and that gap will only grow over the next two to three seasons as Stroud and Anderson play out their rookie deals. That space is the leverage to sign Derek Stingley to a big contract if he continues to flash his All-Pro upside (a bonkers 41.3 passer rating against in 2023). It can be used to re-sign Danielle Hunter when his deal expires in 2026 or Stefon Diggs when he hits the void years of his contract next spring (or, if his play falls of a cliff, can be used to absorb the$16 million in dead salarycap commitments for which Houston would be on the hook in 2025).

This 2024 spending will cut into the moves Houston can make in 2025; at the moment the Texans are only projected to have about $12 million in cap space,per Over the Cap. Restructures and cuts can push that to around $30 million with minimal effort, but current data suggest his team won’t be a big spender next spring.

Which is sort of the point! Houston’s push suggests this is the team it will go to battle with the next two seasons, particularly in an uneven AFC South. If that doesn’t work out, 2026 provides one more reset place — one last year before Stroud and Anderson’s contracts jump in value for their fifth years and the two, almost certainly, sign big money extensions.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes the ball for a 2-pt conversion during game action against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023, in Indianapolis.

Most important non-quarterback: Jonathan Taylor. Anthony Richardson’s got a loaded young supporting cast. The best way to unlock his downfield passing may be with a steady diet of big runs from Taylor, who is still searching for his 2021 form.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB JuJu Brents

Postseason odds: +140

From: Anthony Richardson is the headliner, but the Colts aren’t going anywhere unless their defense improves

The Colts used their rookie quarterback often on designed runs, ostensibly designed to lessen the burden of a first year player reading complex defenses. Richardson threw 84 passes in his abbreviated debut but ran 25 times — a 22.9 percent run share that nearly matches Lamar Jackson’s split in his MVP 2023 campaign (148 runs, 457 passes and a 24 percent run share). This led to an efficient 5.4 yards per carry. It also created the conditions that led to Richardson leaving the field with trainers twice — the second time four games into the season and for good.

It will be interesting to see if head coach Shane Steichen allows him to run as often in year two. Richardson’s success rate on the ground — runs that pick up at least 40 percent of yards needed for a first down on first down, 60 percent on second down and 100 percent of yards-to-go on third or fourth down — was 64 percent. Only one regular player in the NFL had a higher number in 2023…Josh Allen at 65.8 percent.

That’s pretty much a cheat code to keep this offense on schedule, but there’s more to Richardson’s arsenal than big runs. He had little issue airing it out as a rookie; 36 percent of his throws went at least 10 yards downfield, a rate higher than Allen’s 34 percent or, if we’re looking at another celebrated first year starter, Jordan Love’s 33 percent. While that contributed to his less-than-stellar completion rate, it also created a roughly league average 6.9 yards per attempt.

Dec 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) get set to throw the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Travon Walker. Josh Hines-Allen remains a wrecking ball, but if Walker can continue to fulfill his promise as a former No. 1 pick it will take the pressure off an overtaxed secondary.

Under the radar key to 2024: S Antonio Johnson

Postseason odds: +130

From: The Jaguars’ struggle against their own undertow will define Jacksonville’s 2024

And then 2023 hit. Calvin Ridley entered as the WR1 capable of restoring order to the lineup. And [Trevor] Lawrence, fighting through injury for a chunk of the season, played appreciably worse for a team that still won nine games, but ceded the AFC South to the Houston Texans. His sack rate went up, he was prone to scrambling out of bad situations rather than standing in the pocket through static and while his average target distance rose so did his interceptions — from eight in 2022 to 14 last fall. He wasn’t bad; he was merely slightly above average.

via rbsdm.com and the author

That didn’t stop the Jaguars from handing him a massive contract extension — a necessity, given the team’s history at the position and Lawrence’s still untapped potential. But it’s reasonable to be wary of the young quarterback’s leveling up even if he’s full strength in 2024. Ridley was arguably misused in 2023, making someveiled references to his route treeafter signing with the Tennessee Titans this spring. In his place steps Brian Thomas Jr., who is big (6-foot-3), fast as hell (4.33-second 40 time) and a deep ball savant capable of tracking and adjusting to throws in a way that leads to big gains.

Ideally, he’d shunt Kirk down to WR2 status and new arrival Gabe Davis could be an occasionally devastative presence as the third man up. But there’s no guarantee that happens, especially as a rookie, and this group could be a cadre of Williams H. Macy without a leading actor.

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates after a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Chris Jones. Kansas City’s offense backslid in 2023 and still won a Super Bowl because Jones helped make his defense elite.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB Joshua Williams

Postseason odds: -600

From: The Chiefs are a fast-moving glacier and the rest of the NFL is being ground to dust

But even with Rashee Rice thriving in the short range,Travis Kelce a beast in the intermediate range and free agent Marquise Brown capable of filling up a route tree, there left one final piece of the puzzle. [Marquez] Valdes-Scantling was supposed to provide some semblance of a deep game, but in 2023 he bottomed out to career lows of 21 catches and 15 yards per reception. Enter Xavier Worthy.

For reference, the Chiefs have finally replaced [Tyreek] Hill’s 4.29-second 40-yard dash speed with Worthy’s 4.21-second 40 speed. Obviously there’s no guarantee that will translate to the NFL, but it did result in more than 900 receiving yards per season in three years at Texas. Kansas City needed a player who can coax more deep throws out of Mahomes and create space for the team’s other pass catchers to thrive. Worthy is capable of this.

Even if he struggles — and Rice misses time thanks to league discipline related to anoffseason reckless driving arrest— we know the Chiefs offense will be fine because (gestures broadly at the last two years). Isiah Pacheco, a tailback who runs like a possessed child in a horror movie, posted a top 10 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) while proving he could handle an expanded workload. He gets to run behind one of the league’s top interior blocking schemes behind Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. That’s a big deal; the Chiefs are 14-1 when he averages more than five yards per carry in a game.

Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew (15) throws a pass as Minnesota Vikings linebacker Owen Porter (57) pursues and offensive tackle Thayer Munford Jr. (rear) blocks during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Maxx Crosby. A relentless pass rusher who helped make Antonio Pierce’s defense an elite unit to finish the 2023 season.

Under the radar key to 2024: EDGE Malcolm Koonce

Postseason odds: +300

From: The Raiders might as well lean into chaos, because it’s their finest attribute

Here’s how the Raiders defense looked in eight games under McDaniels:

• Points allowed per game: 23.4
• Yards allowed per game: 338
• Expected pointed added (EPA) allowed per play: 0.038 (26th best in the NFL)

Here’s how the Raiders defense looked in nine games under Pierce:

• Points allowed per game: 16
• Yards allowed per game: 325
• EPA allowed per play: -0.141 (second best in the NFL)

That’s a stark turnaround, even if the team was giving up a similar amount of yardage each week. What sparked the change? Pierce’s group showed up like a bunch of hungry goblins late in the season. Las Vegas had eight turnovers forced in eight games under McDaniels, six of which came in tilts against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Under Pierce, they forced 14 in nine games, including five in a shellacking of the Los Angeles Chargers that sealed deposed head coach Brandon Staley’s fate.

Malcolm Koonce played a significant part of this glow-up. The former third round pick was an afterthought his first two seasons in the league and for the first half of 2023. But after McDaniels was fired, his snap share increased and the former University at Buffalo star shined; all eight of his sacks last year and 14 of his 17 quarterback hits came after Pierce took the reins.

Koonce isn’t yet a full-time player — even in his rise he still played more than two-thirds of the team’s defensive snaps only once, and that was in the final game of 2023 — but his athleticism has shined under Pierce, making him the perfect janitor to clean up the messes Crosby creates. That’s before counting for new arrival Christian Wilkins, who’ll ensure there’s no room to step up in the pocket thanks to his penetration in the middle of the line.

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Rashawn Slater/Joe Alt. It’s a Jim Harbaugh team; get the offensive line right and the rest will fall into place.

Under the radar key to 2024: WR Josh Palmer

Postseason odds: +110

From: Dropping Justin Herbert into Jim Harbaugh’s game plan just might supercharge the Chargers’ rebuild

Since 2007, [Harbaugh has] been the head coach of either an NFL or Power 5 college football program. In those 17 years, he’s passed the ball more than he’s run it exactly twice — and one of those was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, so it barely counts.

Harbaugh’s teams won a lot, so that skews the results toward a clock-killing offense. But in great times or merely moderately good ones, his playbook leaned heavily on grinding runs to create opportunities for the pass.

It’s not like he was planning around bad quarterbacks in the process. Andrew Luck quarterbacked two of those Stanford seasons (2009 and 2010). JJ McCarthy was a 2024 first round draft pick. Jake Rudock, John O’Korn and Wilton Speight… well, OK, they weren’tallwinners. But for the most part, Harbaugh’s offenses maintained a similar run-heavy ethos regardless of who was slinging the ball.

Now he gets [Justin] Herbert, who could badly use some support in the midst of significant roster turnover. The Chargers offense will look very different in 2024 even before Harbaugh’s influence.

Jan 14, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) warms up before a 2024 NFC wild card game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Puka Nacua. Cooper Kupp is 31 years old, leaving space for last year’s rookie sensation to further his claim as the engine for LA’s passing offense.

Under the radar key to 2024: DT Kobie Turner

Postseason odds: +100

From: The Rams must adjust to life without Aaron Donald and life with an aging Matthew Stafford

Maybe [head coach Sean] McVay’s wizardry will mask an extended [Matthew] Stafford absence if it arises, as any quarterback having Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to throw to will at least, y’know, have Nacua and Kupp to throw to.

The Los Angeles offensive line has been an on-and-off sore spot in recent years, but adding Jonah Jackson from the Lions should help further cement stability up front. Kyren Williams emerged as a star running back last year, and he’ll be flanked by rookie Blake Corum out of Michigan.

The Rams have enough talent and brainpower on offense to withstand Stafford missing a few games, but they cannot afford a major injury to such a major part of their operation. At 36, Stafford can still play like one of the best quarterbacks in the league when all is going well. Not to sound like a broken record, but his availability is the biggest obstacle for this offense in the end.

Stafford’s recent hamstring issuemakes you further realize how true that is.

Sep 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) celebrates as he leaves the field after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 36-34 at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa wouldn’t have led the NFL in passing yards last season without him.

Under the radar key to 2024: EDGE Jaelan Phillips

Postseason odds: -155

From: Tua Tagovailoa is approaching his Kirk Cousins era, and it may not be enough for the Dolphins

In four years, Tagovailoa is 32-19 as a regular season starter and never had a losing season in the lineup. He’s also got only one playoff appearance to show for it, accounting for injury and a rookie campaign that didn’t really begin until the Dolphins’ seventh game of 2020. That Wild Card start was a disaster on a frigid day in Kansas City against the soon-to-be-crowned back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

Tagovailoa completed only 20 of his 39 attempts for 199 yards. Take away a 53-yard touchdown strike to Tyreek Hill — Miami’s only touchdown of the day — and that falls to a 50 percent completion rate and a disgusting 3.8 yards per pass attempt. Skylar Thompson, the third stringer forced into the Dolphins’ 2023 Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills, averaged 4.9 yards per pass (albeit while connecting on 18 of 45 attempts for a tidy 40 percent completion rate).

While there’s hope Tagovailoa would be better in a more hospitable environment (i.e. one that doesn’t give spectators frostbite), his big 2023 numbers fail to back this up. The fourth-year quarterback had eight games last fall where he recorded a passer rating of 100.0 or better. All eight came against teams with losing records. In six games against teams who made it to the postseason, Tagovailoa was significantly worse.

That frustrating record against good teams includes two games that ended the regular season in which the Dolphins could have clinched the AFC East — losses to the Ravens and Bills where Tagovailoa threw two interceptions apiece.

Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Justin Jefferson. It doesn’t matter if it’s JJ McCarthy or Sam Darnold behind center, he’s gonna feast.

Under the radar key to 2024: S Josh Metellus

Postseason odds: +300

From: The Vikings and Sam Darnold are built for a difficult 2024, and that’s fine

[Darnold’s disappointing 2021] led to a quarterback competition with fellow Carolina Panther Baker Mayfield in 2022, which Darnold lost. Mayfield went on to be the league’s worst starting quarterback that fall, but Darnold was only able to take the reins in Week 12 thanks to an ankle injury that sidelined him early. From there, things took a surprising turn. The discarded QB slashed his interception rate and was sorta… good?

via rbsdm.com and the author.

That’s a small sample size, but it was the best football of Darnold’s career. His interception rate dropped and his scrambling efficiency rose to a career-high 9.0 yards per escape,per Pro Football Reference. That led him to the San Francisco 49ers to back up Brock Purdy, a stint that allowed him one Week 18 start alongside the rest of the team’s backups and little useful data regarding whether or not his 2022 is replicable.

That’s the proposition on which the Vikings staked a one-year, $10 million bet. Darnold was always going to be a bridge to a rookie quarterback, but he was also supposed to be the guy who could carry the team early in the season while said rookie got his feet underneath him. Turns out, that’ll cover the entire 2024 season.

Aug 15, 2024; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to throw against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Christian Gonzalez. Last year’s four-game sample suggested All-Pro bonafides; if he can return to form for all of 2024 the Pats will have a building block at a vital position.

Under the radar key to 2024: WR Kendrick Bourne

Postseason odds: +900

From: Jerod Mayo’s Patriots debut will hinge on a dependable (?) defense and mystery box offense

Jacoby Brissett has proven multiple times he’s capable of providing roughly league-average quarterbacking on short notice. Since 2019, 39 quarterbacks have taken at least 1,000 snaps. His 0.096 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play ranks 23rd, sandwiched between Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. He’s a perfectly cromulent short-term option.

But he’s throwing to a who’s-who of fantasy football waiver wire fodder. The top two veterans wideouts to start training camp were JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne, two short-range targets capable of lifting a shaky quarterback but with little sustained success in New England. Bourne, at the very least, was immensely valuable to Mac Jones in 2021 before falling off, but neither will be ready for the team to start 2024; Bourne is on the physically unable to play list and Smith-Schuster was released, since signing with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Behind them are two rookies who were the 10th and 18th wideouts selected in this year’s draft, Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. KJ Osborn arrives as a high character player and useful depth option, but not someone who can command double teams. The team’s tight ends are a 2019 murderer’s row of Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper (and maybe seventh round rookie Jaheim Bell).

The good news is Rhamondre Stevenson remains to lift the running game. The bad news is his offensive line remains uninspiring; while Stevenson’s yards after contact per carry stayed stable at 2.1 — 12th best in the NFL — his overall yards per carry dropped from 5.0 to 4.0 last fall. His rushing yards over expected (RYOE), an advanced stat that measures how a running back performs vs. how an average back is expected to perform, fell from 118 (ninth best in the NFL) to -18.

Aug 18, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Demario Davis. Consider him the representative for an aging defense that needs to keep it together one more season in order to keep the Saints’ playoff hopes alive.

Under the radar key to 2024: OT Trevor Penning

Postseason odds: +170

From: The Saints are trudging through NFL limbo with no end in sight

Derek Carr was supposed to be the fix; an underappreciated quarterback who toiled with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders but could thrive in a new setting. We never got to see that in 2023, because he got the tar beaten out of him.

He suffered a shoulder injury in Week 3 against the Green Bay Packers and was effectively week-to-week for the rest of the season. He also dealt with a concussion and bruised ribs but still started all 17 games and played efficient, if forgettable, football for a 9-8 team. His completion rate soared to 68.4 and his 97.7 passer rating was the third-highest of his career. With a potential playoff spot on the line, he torched the Atlanta Falcons for four touchdowns in a 48-17 win that ultimately didn’t matter thanks to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ NFC South-clinching victory on the same day.

That’s the blueprint head coach Dennis Allen would like to follow in 2024. Carr’s deep game worked wonders; he completed all four of his throws of 20-plus yards and was 6-8 for 146 of his 261 yards and three touchdowns on his throws that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That stands in contrast to the rest of his Saints tenure, where hisaverage throw depth of 6.8 yardswas his lowest mark since 2019.

Carr’s injuries likely played a role in that safer game plan, but he’s still got juice when it comes to field-stretching lobs. The question is whether he has the horses to pull such throws off.

Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Travon Walker (44) tries to run down New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) during a second quarter scramble out the sideline. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the New York Giants at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL Sunday, October 23, 2022. The Jaguars trailed at the half 11 to 13. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union]

Jki 102322 Hsfb Bs Jaguars Vs Giants 43

Most important non-quarterback: Andrew Thomas. Either he keeps Daniel Jones upright long enough to keep his job or emerges as a vital blindside protector for whomever the Giants draft in 2025.

Under the radar key to 2024: RB Tyrone Tracy

Postseason odds: +400

From: Can Daniel Jones lead the Giants to another low expectations miracle?

Jones is at theprecipice of an enormous crossroadfor his second time as a New York Giant. With his rookie contract set to expire, he rose up and outdueled Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings for a Wild Card win. The following offseason, the Giants offered him a four year, $160 million extension with $82 million guaranteed. At the same time, they only franchise tagged Barkley, the running back endemic to Jones’ 2022 success.

That extension wasn’t cheap, but it can effectively be a two-year deal (with a reasonable dead cap number) if the team finds it necessary to jettison its former franchise QB. And Jones’ 2023 play was worthy of being set off on an ice floe.

While his completion rate rose, the negative play concerns that plagued him pre-2022 returned. He threw six interceptions in six games — a career-worst 3.8 percent pick rate — was sacked on nearly 16 percent of his dropbacks and fumbled four times (though, to his credit, he only lost one of those). He roasted the undermanned Arizona Cardinals en route to 321 yards and a pair of touchdown passes in Week 2. Otherwise, he failed to throw for more than 203 yards or find the end zone through the air in any of his other games.

I know the video above isn’t great quality but please do give it a click if you’d like to see both famous Manning brothers reflexively throw up surrender cobras at the very moment Jones destroys the Giants’ scoring hopes.

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers during the 2023 season opener.

Most important non-quarterback: Tyron Smith. The defense will be fine no matter what, but the offense is in real trouble if Aaron Rodgers gets hurt again — hence the investment in blocking help this offseason.

Under the radar key to 2024: EDGE Will McDonald IV

Postseason odds: -175

From: The Jets can have their best season in a decade even if Aaron Rodgers kinda stinks

New York’s defense was overtaxed last season but still one of the league’s best units. A [Zach] Wilson offense meant only one team in the league held the ball less on offense (2:23 per drive, accordingto Pro Football Reference). Still, the Jets ranked third in the league in yards allowed, first in yards allowed per play and third inEPA allowed per snap.

A massive component of this was a defense that was able to create chaos in the pocket without sending extra players to the line of scrimmage. New York’s 98 blitzes were the lowest in the NFL — nearly 30 fewer than the third place Las Vegas Raiders. The team’s 48 sacks were seventh-best in the league and its 26.5 percent pressure rate ranked fourth.

There’s a sliver of concern there; Bryce Huff is a Philadelphia Eagle. Hasson Reddick, traded to fill the slot he left behind, is holding out for a larger contract and currently at a stalemate with his new team. But there are still two former first round picks flanking Quinnen Williams as edge rushers between Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald IV. McDonald underwhelmed as a rookie, so Saleh would prefer to have a veteran hand like Reddick available, but this isn’t a lost cause if he fails to report.

That’s because the defense behind that front is stout as hell.

Sep 12, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) scrambles up the field against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Darius Slay. Philly’s secondary issues contributed to last year’s season ending spiral. Young reinforcements have joined the fight, but the tone will be set by the Eagles’ veteran leader at cornerback.

Under the radar key to 2024: LB Zack Baun

Postseason odds: -250

From: I regret to inform you the Eagles have reloaded once more

[Aging stars and departures] left holes in the secondary that needed to be filled and a 2024 NFL Draft board that shook out perfectly in Philly’s favor. No defensive back was selected before the Eagles’ 22nd overall pick, giving [general manager Howie] Roseman the opportunity to make Toledo stud Quinyon Mitchell the first corner drafted. When Iowa safety/cornerback Cooper DeJean slid from his expected landing spot in the first round, Roseman struck a deal to trade up and snag him with the 40th pick.

If he’s not able to punch up the safety position or at slot corner? Welp, CJ Gardner-Johnson, vital to the team’s 2022 Super Bowl run behind six interceptions and infinite confidence, is back on the roster after an injury-marred season with the Detroit Lions.

None of these players are sure things, but Roseman took a team pressed against the salary cap strain of big contracts and landed low cost contributors who can fix the team’s fatal flaws. Of course, that doesn’t mean we can pencil Philadelphia in for a division title yet.

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – JUNE 6: Russell Wilson #3 looks on alongside Justin Fields #2 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the Pittsburgh Steelers OTA offseason workout at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on June 6 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 776155010 ORIG FILE ID: 2155683680

Most important non-quarterback: TJ Watt. See above RE: Myles Garrett.

Under the radar key to 2024: DT Keeanu Benton

Postseason odds: +185

From: The Steelers feel destined to play out the same old song and dance again

[Head coach Mike] Tomlin has never presided over a losing campaign with Pittsburgh, with a handful of 8-8 seasons the worst he’s ever engineered as a head coach. It’d be ridiculous at this point to assume that he’s capable of anything else than that, and it’s probably safe to assume the Steelers will find some way to scrape together a respectable season once more.

However, Tomlin’s team hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season, making it harder and harder to have faith in Pittsburgh’s ability to be anything other than what they’ve been over the last decade. Consistently good, occasionally really good, stuck in place without much sign of growth.

The AFC has moved past the Steelers being one of its juggernauts, as the days of Ben Roethlisberger and the vaunted “Iron Curtain” defense absolutely dominating the conference have been replaced by the heydays of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.

The franchise’s lingering inability to replace Roethlisberger looms larger and larger as the years go on, as even Big Ben’s diminished years overshadow what the team has had at quarterback since his 2021 retirement.

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates with guard Jon Feliciano (55) and offensive tackle Trent Williams (71) after a play against the Detroit Lions during the second half of the NFC Championship football game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco is, as usual, loaded with weapons. McCaffrey is the straw that stirs the drink.

Under the radar key to 2024: G Dominick Puni

Postseason odds: -575

From: The 49ers are staring at a closing Super Bowl window and doing their best to jam it open

The most striking thing about [Brock] Purdy’s emergence in 2023 was his ability to work inside Shanahan’s game plan and turn his rookie season weakness — a tendency to float deep throws — into a relative strength. Purdy completed only four of 12 passes to travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in seven games in 2022. In 16 regular season games last fall, he attempted 38 such throws and completed 23 of them,per SIS.

Those 38 deep balls were only 23rd most in the NFL last season, but his 60.5 percent completion rate was tops among all quarterbacks. How’d that work? Because Purdy also peppered the intermediate range (10-19 yards downfield) with accurate throws to a lineup filled with playmakers. [Head coach Kyle] Shanahan could layer his threats — [Brandon] Aiyuk deep(ish), Deebo Samuel waiting to crush short routes and run after catch afterward and George Kittle in the middle — to effectively diffuse defenses and create space for the deep shots opposing secondaries didn’t quite expect.

The end result was seven games in which Purdy averaged better than 10 yards per pass attempt. It manifests in passing charts like this, where a concentration of chain-moving intermediate throws:

creates single coverage opportunities like this:

Dec 31, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) carries the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: DK Metcalf. Tyler Lockett is getting older and Jaxon Smith-Njigba still needs to prove he can be a consistent threat. That makes the beefy wideout a vital, reliable piece of Geno Smith’s offense.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB Riq Woolen

Postseason odds: +180

From: The Seahawks’ soft reset puts a ton of pressure on a first year coach (and Geno Smith)

Now [head coach Mike] Macdonald, brain behind the Baltimore Ravens defense that finished third, then first in the NFL in points allowed in his two seasons as defensive coordinator, gets to work with a group that discarded some of its older members — Quandre Diggs, Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams are all gone — but brings back Julian Love, Leonard Williams, Riq Woolen, Unchenna Nwosu, and Devon Witherspoon along with 2024 first round pick Byron Murphy.

That’s solid star power, but Macdonald’s strength comes in developing players to the peak of their abilities. Geno Stone and Justin Madubuike emerged as valuable starters under his watch. Patrick Queen, a former first round pick, played the best football of his career after Macdonald became DC (though the addition of Roquan Smith certainly played a role). Kyle Van Noy revived his career, once again, with a nine sack 2023 despite not signing with Baltimore until late September.

Who could this apply to in the Pacific Northwest? Woolen backslid a bit after an impressive rookie campaign. Boye Mafe may be on the brink of a breakout after nine sacks (with only 16 quarterback hits) in 2023. Nwosu returns to the lineup after missing 11 games last year due to injury. Tyrel Dodson was signed after four unremarkable seasons as a Buffalo Bill and Jerome Baker arrived after six years as a Miami Dolphin. Those two aren’t quite Queen and Smith, but Macdonald’s track record suggests he can make that duo a useful binary star system in the middle of the field.

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) gestures before the snap against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Antoine Winfield Jr. His ability to make plays in every facet of the game creates all the space Baker Mayfield’s offense needs to stay in games.

Under the radar key to 2024: C Graham Barton

Postseason odds: +145

From: The Buccaneers’ success hinges on Baker Mayfield being better than Tom Brady (again)

Brady, a 43-year-old man with very little mobility, was forced into quick releases and short passes en route to an underwhelming finale to a legendary career. Mayfield used his mobility to his advantage (his 29 scrambles were a career high,per Pro Football Reference), stood in the face of pressure longer and finished the season sandwiched between Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff when it came to EPA/play, good for 10th overall.

via rbsdm.com and the author.

He did this with great wideouts, useful blocking along the edges and little else. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were their usual dynamic selves. Tristan Wirfs remained a one-man wrecking crew and Luke Goedeke proved capable of holdingdown the other tackle spotopposite him.

The middle of the line remained a mess; Tampa’s 2.1 yards before contact per rush was second-worst in the NFL. Its 3.4 yards per carry ranked dead last. Cade Otton put up decent numbers in his second season as a pro, but his yards per route run didn’t evencrack the top 50among tight ends.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) scrambles and jumps over Indianapolis Colts linebacker E.J. Speed (45), linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) and cornerback Kenny Moore II (23), on Sunday, Dec. 3, 2023, during NFL week 13 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.

Most important non-quarterback: DeAndre Hopkins. One more dominant season from an aging wideout would do wonders to boost Will Levis’s profile after an uneven rookie campaign.

Under the radar key to 2024: CB Roger McCreary

Postseason odds: +425

From: The Titans’ search for a new identity won’t matter if Will Levis plays like an unmanned fire hose

[Levis’s] -3.2 percent completion rate over expected,per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, was only fourth-worst in the league but ahead of only guys like Taylor Heinicke, Trevor Siemian and Tommy DeVito. Despite his preference for big throws, his average completion only made it either 6.7 yards downfield (per Next Gen Stats) or 7.1 (per Pro Football Reference).

[General manager Ran]Carthon is betting an upgraded supporting cast can unlock the inner Josh Allen within the former Kentucky star, just like Buffalo did with its mercurial, big-armed, low-accuracy QB. JC Latham has the talent to protect his blindside. Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd make up a trustworthy top wideout trio, creating valuable insurance if former first round pick Treylon Burks continues to struggle. If those guys can create space, tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo can exploit it with his high level athleticism and run-after-catch prowess.

That’s all a very big bet on a player who lacked the pre-draft raves Allen did. But you can argue he’s slightly ahead of where the former Wyoming star was at the same point in his career. Levis craves action and runs face first into danger like the Bills quarterback:

Aug 17, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) drops back to pass against the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Most important non-quarterback: Terry McLaurin. The defense has been shaken up greatly, and the only way for Washington to win games this season may be via shootout. In that regard, McLaurin is the Commanders’ ammunition.

Under the radar key to 2024: WR Dyami Brown

Postseason odds: +260

From: Jayden Daniels and the Commanders just have to show proof of concept in 2024

There are several culprits to blame, but the fact remains the Commanders were a rotten franchise whose toxicity trickled from the top. Former owner Dan Snyder was so despised that a group of billionaires quietly forced him out of their club, necessitatinga sale to Josh Harrisafter 23 years of fruitless ownership. When Jerry Jones is able to claim the high road on you, that’s saying something. Snyder’s tendency to make the worst possible decisions at every turnare well documented.

That lends hope to the idea Daniels, the second overall pick and fruit of last year’s four-win campaign, can be different. Harris’s reign hasn’t been much of anything, but no news is good news for a franchise that spent the last decade plagued by bad press. Washington’s priority has to be creating a stable environment in which the reigning Heisman Trophy winner can thrive.

Elements of this already exist. Terry McLaurin is averaging more than 1,000 receiving yards per season through five years in the league. His 9.9 yards per target in 2022 ranked fifth among all qualified wideouts in a year where his quarterbacks were Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz.